CHANGYU(SZ:000869) Huaxin Securities·2024-04-26 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zhangyu A (000869.SZ) [16][19]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on profits, with expectations for marginal improvement in performance [5][7]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 811 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 159 million yuan, down 42.57% year-on-year [7]. - The company aims to achieve no less than 4.7 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, controlling main costs and three expenses below 3.7 billion yuan [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 59.18%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.78%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company's management expense ratio increased, contributing to the decline in net profit margin [7]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was -65 million yuan, compared to 334 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a healthy cash flow despite the revenue decline [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure and expanding its coverage by promoting low-alcohol wines to attract a broader consumer base [8]. - There will be an increase in recruitment for marketing personnel to enhance marketing capabilities and product exposure [8]. - The integration of the "Zhangyu" parent brand with its sub-brands is aimed at leveraging brand influence [8]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.84, 0.94, and 1.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31, 28, and 25 times [19][32].