水痘稳健，带状疱疹放量可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 39.28 [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2024 revenue, achieving 270.29 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 50.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 60.57 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable increase of 229.52% [2][5] - The company is positioned as a leader in the varicella vaccine market, with expectations for substantial contributions from the shingles vaccine and a recovery in sales of the nasal spray influenza vaccine [2][8] - The report highlights a robust pipeline of research and development projects, including monoclonal antibodies for rabies and tetanus, as well as a recombinant shingles vaccine [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 1,071.45 million yuan - 2023A: 1,824.69 million yuan (growth rate: 70.30%) - 2024E: 2,522.86 million yuan (growth rate: 38.26%) - 2025E: 3,122.11 million yuan (growth rate: 23.75%) - 2026E: 3,591.42 million yuan (growth rate: 15.03%) [2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 181.54 million yuan - 2023A: 501.01 million yuan (growth rate: 175.98%) - 2024E: 733.32 million yuan (growth rate: 46.37%) - 2025E: 949.62 million yuan (growth rate: 29.50%) - 2026E: 1,121.25 million yuan (growth rate: 18.07%) [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.44 yuan - 2023A: 1.21 yuan - 2024E: 1.78 yuan - 2025E: 2.30 yuan - 2026E: 2.72 yuan [2] - Profitability Ratios: - Net profit margin for Q1 2024 increased to 22.41%, up by 12.16 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 89.72%, reflecting an improvement [2][9] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leadership in the varicella vaccine market, with anticipated growth from the shingles vaccine and a recovery in the nasal spray influenza vaccine sales [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's diverse R&D pipeline, which is expected to enhance its long-term competitive advantage [2][8]