CNOOC(600938) 华鑫证券·2024-04-26 07:00Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has significantly increased its oil and gas exploration and development efforts, leading to steady growth in net oil and gas production In Q1 2024, the company achieved a total net production of 180 1 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), a year-on-year increase of 9 9% [5] - Domestic net production reached 123 2 million BOE, up 6 9% YoY, driven by new project contributions Overseas net production was 56 9 million BOE, up 16 9% YoY, primarily due to increased output from Guyana and Canada [5] - The company made 2 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 4 oil and gas structures in Q1 2024 Notably, the evaluation of the Bozhong 8-3 South structure in China opened a new frontier for ultra-deepwater oil and gas exploration [5] - The company's average realized oil price in Q1 2024 was 7 69 per thousand cubic feet, down 7 7% YoY The company's cost per barrel decreased by 2 2% to $27 59, enhancing profitability [6] - Capital expenditure in Q1 2024 was approximately RMB 29 01 billion, up 17 3% YoY, driven by increased construction projects and adjustment well activities [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 111 468 billion, up 14 1% YoY Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 39 719 billion, up 23 7% YoY and 51 6% quarter-on-quarter [16] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are RMB 444 8 billion, RMB 480 64 billion, and RMB 500 42 billion, respectively EPS is projected to be RMB 3 05, RMB 3 26, and RMB 3 53, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 5x, 8 9x, and 8 2x [8][9] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, with forecasts of 20 0%, 19 7%, and 19 6% for 2024-2026 [9] Production and Exploration - The company is on track to achieve its 2024 oil and gas production target of 700-720 million BOE, supported by the successful commissioning of the Suizhong 36-1/Lvda 5-2 oilfield secondary adjustment project and other ongoing projects [5] - The new discovery of the Bluefin structure in Guyana's Stabroek block has further expanded the block's reserves in the southeastern region [5] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditure, with 2024 guidance of RMB 125-135 billion Q1 2024 capital expenditure accounted for only 21 5%-23% of the annual target, indicating significant spending in the remaining quarters [37] - The company's capital expenditure and production levels are expected to remain high, with a growth rate in oil and gas extraction plans exceeding that of other major industry players over the next three years [37] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of the report date was RMB 28 85, with a 52-week range of RMB 17 55-30 58 [14] - The company's market capitalization was RMB 1,372 3 billion, with a circulating share capital of 2,842 million shares and an average daily trading volume of RMB 8 3555 billion [2]