Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][15]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing a phase of weak demand and increased supply, leading to a challenging pricing environment. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the marginal optimization of supply and demand dynamics [3][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 2.35 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.87 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.54, 28.48, and 25.83 times [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 20 million yuan, down 88.44% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was approximately 19 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 88.75% year-on-year [1][3]. - For the full year 2023, the company achieved revenues of approximately 2.049 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 231 million yuan, down 63.25% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was approximately 24.71%, a decline of 14.08% year-on-year [17][24]. - The company’s core business, carbon fiber raw silk, generated revenues of approximately 1.559 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of about 26.20%, down 13.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][17]. Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber market has experienced a significant supply-demand imbalance in 2023, with domestic production capacity reaching 120,200 tons, an increase of 34.75% year-on-year. However, global demand for carbon fiber fell by 14.8% to approximately 115,000 tons [6][17]. - The average market price for carbon fiber in China was approximately 118.49 yuan/kg in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.52% [6][17]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [14][24].
盈利进入底部，向上拐点或仍需等待