CTFO(002373) 民生证券·2024-04-26 07:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [5][10] Core Views - The company achieved rapid growth in its smart transportation business, with AI empowerment expected to accelerate future growth [10] - The company is a leader in the smart IoT and smart transportation sectors, with a strong focus on industry ecosystem development [10] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 632 million, 755 million, and 941 million yuan respectively [10] Financial Performance and Projections - 2023 revenue: 7,794 million yuan, up 11.28% YoY; net profit: 542 million yuan, up 212.39% YoY [10] - 2024 Q1 revenue: 1,580 million yuan, up 0.74% YoY; net profit: -58 million yuan [10] - 2024-2026 revenue projections: 9,224 million, 11,088 million, and 13,012 million yuan, with growth rates of 18.35%, 20.21%, and 17.35% respectively [6][10] - 2024-2026 net profit projections: 632 million, 755 million, and 941 million yuan, with growth rates of 16.44%, 19.53%, and 24.66% respectively [6][10] Business Segments - Smart transportation business revenue in 2023: 2,581 million yuan, up 37.58% YoY, accounting for 62.79% of intercity transportation and 34.75% of urban transportation [10] - AI-driven products and solutions have been successfully deployed in over 200 traffic police departments across 12 provinces and 26 cities [10] - The company has launched the "Wutong" video industry model and the "Lüpai Rabbit" scenic VLOG short video service, achieving breakthroughs in nearly 100 scenic spots [10] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 23X, 19X, and 15X respectively [10] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 1.1X, 1.0X, and 1.0X respectively [6] - 2024-2026 EV/EBITDA ratios: 10.79X, 8.98X, and 7.71X respectively [13] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established new cooperation models with local governments, state-owned enterprises, and operators, achieving significant progress [10] - The company has strengthened its "channel-first" strategy and initiated a seed partner program, opening new opportunities for cooperation with operators [10] - The company has been included in the centralized procurement catalogs of China Telecom and China Mobile, further expanding its market presence [10]