业务量保持高增，经营业绩稳健

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 11.34 CNY, based on a 21x PE for 2024 [18][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a business volume growth of 35.2% year-on-year in 2023, with a market share increase of 1.55 percentage points [3][13]. - Cost control measures have been effective, leading to a 10.9% decrease in per-package costs [3]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a business volume of 4.587 billion packages, a 36.68% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 12.36% [4]. - The single-package revenue for Q1 2024 was 2.17 CNY, down 12.39% year-on-year but up 0.20% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2024 was 0.041 CNY per package, relatively stable compared to Q1 2023 [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 was 40.924 billion CNY, a 21.54% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.41% [16]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 48.192 billion CNY, 55.940 billion CNY, and 63.923 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.76%, 16.08%, and 14.27% [17]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 821 million CNY, 1.189 billion CNY, and 1.428 billion CNY, with growth rates of 140.84%, 44.92%, and 20.10% [17]. - The EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 0.54 CNY, 0.78 CNY, and 0.93 CNY, respectively [17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 41.5 in 2023 to 17.2 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [5][18]. Market Position - The company’s market share in the express delivery sector reached 13.26% in 2023, significantly above the industry growth rate [13]. - The average single-package price in the industry decreased by 4.33% in 2023, reflecting competitive pricing pressures [13]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 4.18%, slightly down from the previous year due to competitive pricing [13].