Guoxin Securities·2024-04-26 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is "Accumulate" [4][19]. Core Views - The company's revenue remained stable with a slight increase in net profit, driven by a year-on-year growth in power generation [1][5]. - The continuous growth in new energy installed capacity is expected to steadily enhance future performance [1][18]. - The company is actively upgrading its wind farms to improve efficiency and reduce operational issues [19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Longyuan Power achieved a revenue of 9.877 billion yuan (+0.10%) and a net profit of 2.393 billion yuan (+2.47%) [1][5]. - The total power generation for Q1 2024 was 21.225 billion kWh (+8.27%), with wind power generation at 17.031 billion kWh (+1.37%) and thermal power at 2.581 billion kWh (+11.30%) [5][12]. - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 14 hours year-on-year to 640 hours, while thermal power increased by 140 hours to 1,377 hours [5][11]. Installed Capacity and Future Growth - As of March 2024, the company had a total installed capacity of 36.16 GW, including 27.78 GW from wind power and 1.88 GW from thermal power [1][18]. - In 2023, the company added 54 GW of new energy resources, with significant contributions from wind and solar projects [1][18]. - For 2024, Longyuan Power plans to start new energy projects totaling 10 GW and expects to put 7.5 GW into operation [1][18]. Profitability and Valuation - The company maintains a stable gross margin of 39.89% and a net margin of 26.93%, with slight year-on-year improvements in net profit margin due to increased investment income [11][12]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 8.505 billion yuan, 9.550 billion yuan, and 10.609 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 36.1%, 12.3%, and 11.1% respectively [19][21]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 17.8 for 2024, with a target valuation range of 161.6 billion to 170.1 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 7%-12% from the current stock price [19][21].