Autobio(603658) 海通证券·2024-04-26 10:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.444 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.05% The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.217 billion yuan, up 4.28% year-on-year, and the non-GAAP net profit was 1.185 billion yuan, up 5.86% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue was 1.089 billion yuan, up 5.09% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 324 million yuan, up 33.93% year-on-year [3] - The company's overseas revenue in 2023 was 209 million yuan, up 60.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.81% [3] - The company has a comprehensive product line covering clinical immunoassays, microbiological testing, molecular diagnostics, and biochemical testing, with 705 product registration certificates and 470 CE certifications by the end of 2023 [3] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 2.61, 3.18, and 3.81 yuan in 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 25.8%, 21.8%, and 19.7%, respectively [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 4.444 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.217 billion yuan The gross margin was 65.1%, and the net profit margin was 27.4% [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 5.161 billion yuan in 2024, 5.889 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.676 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits of 1.532 billion yuan, 1.865 billion yuan, and 2.232 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The gross margin is expected to increase to 65.7% in 2024, 66.6% in 2025, and 67.4% in 2026 [4] Business Breakdown - In 2023, the company's reagent products generated 3.8149 billion yuan in revenue, while instrument products contributed 482.4 million yuan [5] - The company's total revenue is expected to grow to 5.1613 billion yuan in 2024, 5.8889 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.6765 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation and Forecast - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 27.08x in 2023, 21.52x in 2024, 17.68x in 2025, and 14.77x in 2026 [7] - The company's P/B ratio is forecasted to be 3.86x in 2023, 3.30x in 2024, 2.78x in 2025, and 2.48x in 2026 [7] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 18.92x in 2023 to 7.44x in 2026 [7] Financial Ratios and Efficiency - The company's asset-liability ratio was 25.0% in 2023 and is expected to decrease to 17.5% by 2026 [7] - The company's current ratio improved from 2.66 in 2023 to 5.55 in 2026, while the quick ratio increased from 1.37 to 3.89 over the same period [8] - The company's accounts receivable turnover days decreased from 89.35 days in 2023 to 70.28 days in 2026, and inventory turnover days improved from 177.49 days to 142.75 days [8] Cash Flow Analysis - The company's operating cash flow was 1.470 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to increase to 3.244 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The company's net cash flow from investment activities was -787 million yuan in 2023 and is expected to improve to -176 million yuan by 2026 [8] - The company's net cash flow from financing activities was -337 million yuan in 2023 and is expected to be -788 million yuan in 2026 [8]