Xiangyu(SH:600057) Huachuang Securities·2024-04-27 05:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.8 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price [22][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.57 billion CNY for 2023, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 0.3% [22][23]. - Total revenue for 2023 was 459 billion CNY, down 15% year-on-year, primarily due to weak domestic and international demand and pressure on commodity prices [22][23]. - The gross profit for 2023 was 8.8 billion CNY, reflecting a 23% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of 2% [22][23]. - The company aims to improve its profitability margins and expand its international presence while managing risks effectively [22][23]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 508.76 billion CNY, 562.81 billion CNY, and 623.52 billion CNY respectively, with expected growth rates of 10.8% for 2024 and 10.6% for 2025 [36]. - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.94 billion CNY, 2.29 billion CNY, and 2.64 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 23.3% for 2024 and 18.0% for 2025 [36]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for the next three years are 0.85 CNY, 1.01 CNY, and 1.16 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [36]. Business Segment Performance - Commodity Supply Chain: Revenue from the supply chain business was 439.2 billion CNY in 2023, down 15.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 6.1 billion CNY and a gross margin of 1.4% [22][23]. - Shipbuilding Business: The shipbuilding segment achieved a revenue of 4.75 billion CNY, up 43% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.07 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 258% [22][23]. - Logistics Business: The logistics segment generated 7.1 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 7.84% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.9% [22][23]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% in net profit over the next three years, driven by strategic adjustments and market opportunities [22][23].