CIMC VEHICLES(301039) 东吴证券·2024-04-27 11:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 5.153 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 21.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 265 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.5% [3] - The North American semi-trailer market is stabilizing, which has impacted Q1 performance. The company sold 29,500 units in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 19.0% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.6%. The average selling price per unit was 174,800 yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year and 28.0% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the domestic logistics market and a gradual improvement in the North American semi-trailer market starting Q2 2024. The company aims to enhance its global market share through product line expansion and the promotion of new energy semi-trailer products [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.26%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.3 percentage points. The decline in sales and profits is attributed to the normalization of supply and demand in the North American semi-trailer market [3] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting revenues of 27.3 billion yuan, 32.3 billion yuan, and 36.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.42 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.97 billion yuan [4] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to support the growth of the domestic semi-trailer business, while the North American market is anticipated to stabilize and improve. The company is also focusing on expanding its specialized vehicle business and overseas semi-trailer markets [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.70 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.98 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 12, and 11 times [4]