Xinda Securities·2024-04-27 12:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Life Insurance (601628.SH) is "Accumulate," consistent with the previous rating of "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has demonstrated strong premium growth, leading the industry, with a revenue increase of 14.4% year-on-year to CNY 120.97 billion in Q1 2024. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to CNY 20.644 billion, reflecting pressure from investment performance [1]. - The report emphasizes improvements in the liability structure and quality, which have driven a remarkable performance in New Business Value (NBV), with a year-on-year increase of 26.3% in Q1 2024, marking the highest growth rate in recent years [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and ongoing reforms, with a strong existing business foundation and resilient operations. The individual insurance agent team is stabilizing, and the professionalization of the team is enhancing product structure and NBV [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2024, total premium income increased by 3.2% year-on-year to CNY 337.638 billion, outperforming major peers despite a high base in Q1 2023 [1]. - The company's new single premium decreased by 4.4% year-on-year to CNY 112.444 billion, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-value single premium products [1]. Business Development - The individual insurance sales force reached 622,000 people in Q1 2024, with improvements in both scale and quality. The average monthly first-year premium per person increased by 17.7% year-on-year [1]. - The report indicates that the growth of medium- to long-term premium income is expected to continue, contributing to NBV growth [1]. Investment Performance - The annualized total investment yield and net investment yield for Q1 2024 were 3.23% and 2.82%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - Total investment income and net investment income increased by 7.2% and decreased slightly, respectively, indicating stable growth in investment scale despite downward pressure on yields [1]. Financial Forecasts - The report provides financial forecasts, projecting total revenue to reach CNY 882.005 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to CNY 27.259 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.1% [3].