TINCI(002709) 东吴证券·2024-04-27 15:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q1 2024 performance is generally in line with expectations, with revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 100 million yuan, down 84% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a clear bottom in profitability for electrolyte sales [3][4] - The company expects a 25% growth in electrolyte shipments for the full year, with Q1 shipments reaching 90,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 10%. The total expected shipments for 2024 are around 500,000 tons, representing a 25% increase [3] - The unit profitability for Q1 2024 has reached a bottom, with a projected increase in profitability due to rising external supply of lithium salts. The net profit per ton of electrolyte is estimated to be around 1,100 yuan, significantly higher than the previous quarter [3] - The company anticipates that the phosphate iron business will achieve breakeven in the second half of the year, with a projected total impact on profits of approximately 100 million yuan for 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 1.213 billion, 2.106 billion, and 3.104 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -36%, +74%, and +47%. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 33x, 19x, and 13x [4][9] - The Q1 2024 gross margin is reported at 19.5%, reflecting a decrease of 11 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 is reported at 22 million yuan, showing a significant decrease of 97% quarter-on-quarter [4][9]