Huachuang Securities·2024-04-27 16:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.43 CNY, compared to the current price of 29.55 CNY [4][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in new business value (NBV) by 26.3% year-on-year in Q1 2024, despite a decline in net profit due to investment performance [2][4]. - Total premium income for Q1 2024 reached 337.6 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with a notable increase in renewal business [4][5]. - The company’s net investment yield decreased to 2.82%, down by 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, impacting net profit which fell by 9.3% to 20.6 billion CNY [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Projected operating revenue for 2024E is 392.3 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.9% [3]. - Expected net profit for 2024E is 42.6 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 7.7% year-on-year [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.51 CNY for 2024E, increasing to 2.28 CNY by 2026E [3][4]. - Key Financial Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19.6 for 2024E, decreasing to 12.9 by 2026E [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.6 in 2024E to 1.4 in 2026E [3]. - Sales Force and Marketing Strategy: - The total sales force stood at 679,000 as of Q1 2024, with a slight decrease from the beginning of the year [4]. - The company is implementing a new marketing model called the "Seed Plan," which has shown progress in pilot regions [4]. - Investment Strategy: - The company is adjusting its investment strategy in response to declining long-term interest rates, which has affected its investment income [4][5].