HDCM(SZ:000567) Guotou Securities·2024-04-28 01:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, indicating a strong potential for returns over the next six months [3][18]. Core Views - The company is the only licensed entity in the A-share market primarily engaged in Asset Management Company (AMC) business, leveraging its shareholder background and resources to focus on distressed asset management across three main business lines: institutional distressed asset management, individual distressed asset management, and high-quality asset management aligned with national industrial development [3]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Sichuan Haocheng, a clearing company, is expected to enhance the company's advantages in corporate restructuring and reorganization [3]. - The company is projected to see steady revenue growth driven by its unique AMC license and ongoing expansion in distressed asset management, with expected revenue growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 23% from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 880 million yuan, up 25.7% year-on-year [20]. - The company reported a net profit of 995.6 million yuan for 2024, with a projected growth rate of 13.1% [26]. - The financial metrics indicate a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.57% for 2023, with expectations for continued improvement in the coming years [20][26]. Business Segments Overview - The institutional distressed asset management segment contributed significantly to revenue, with 11.1 billion yuan in distressed asset disposal income in 2023, representing 90.4% of total revenue [9]. - The energy sector holds a substantial portfolio of distressed assets, with a balance of 4.77 billion yuan, expected to generate stable restructuring income [9]. - The company has established partnerships with various financial institutions and local AMCs to enhance its capabilities in distressed asset management [9][21]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a target price of 10.71 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 14.5x for 2024, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's unique license and growth potential [3]. - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies in the AMC sector is noted to be 10.4x, indicating the company's potential for valuation upside [3]. Market Position - The company has a leading market share in the individual distressed asset management sector, having acquired 29 non-performing loan projects with a total principal of approximately 10.6 billion yuan [21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the economy, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, which is expected to provide stable rental income and asset appreciation [9].