NMHD(600863) 国泰君安·2024-04-28 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Inner Mongolia Huadian Power (600863) with a target price of CNY 5.16, up from the previous target of CNY 4.73 [1][2] - The company's valuation is based on a 12x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting improved profit stability and dividend value [1] Core Views - Inner Mongolia Huadian Power's 1Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue of CNY 5.57 billion (-7.4% YoY) and net profit of CNY 890 million (+3.0% YoY) [1] - The company's cost and expense improvements, along with reduced minority interests, contributed to profit growth [1] - Coal and electricity synergy, capacity pricing, and the expansion of the Weijiamao coal mine are expected to enhance profit stability [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio is better than peers, with a planned dividend of CNY 0.185 per share for 2023, representing 70.1% of distributable profits [1][5] Financial Performance - 1Q24 operating profit was CNY 1.22 billion (+0.4% YoY), with net profit of CNY 1.06 billion (-1.1% YoY) [1] - The company's coal production in 1Q24 was 3.29 million tons (-0.1% YoY, +11.5% QoQ), with an average coal price of CNY 417/ton (-2.5% YoY, +2.8% QoQ) [1] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 0.36, increasing to CNY 0.43 in 2025E and CNY 0.46 in 2026E [1][2] Industry Comparison - Inner Mongolia Huadian Power's 2025E PE ratio of 10x is in line with peers such as GD Power (10x), China Shenhua (13x), Huaneng Power (10x), and Fujian Funeng (8x) [4] - The company's dividend payout ratio of 70% is higher than peers like GD Power (30%), China Shenhua (60%), and Huaneng Power (50%) [5] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts 2024E revenue of CNY 21.997 billion (-2% YoY), with operating profit of CNY 3.62 billion (-4% YoY) and net profit of CNY 2.356 billion (+17% YoY) [2] - By 2026E, revenue is expected to grow to CNY 22.789 billion (+1% YoY), with net profit reaching CNY 3.009 billion (+7% YoY) [2] - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 5.88x in 2024E to 4.77x in 2026E, reflecting improved valuation metrics [2]