Mtalco(SH:601677) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-04-28 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 26.44 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.35 billion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 showed a significant recovery with a net profit of 362 million yuan, up 93.6% quarter-on-quarter [7][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the aluminum plate and strip processing industry, with a focus on cost control and risk management, which are superior to industry standards. The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as downstream consumption gradually improves [10][11]. - The company has seen a positive growth trend in aluminum plate and strip shipments throughout 2023, with a total shipment of 1.2478 million tons, representing a 7% year-on-year increase. However, the average net profit per ton decreased by 21.2% year-on-year [8][21]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2022 revenue was 27.78 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.9%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 26.44 billion yuan, with a projected recovery to 31.02 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 17.3% [7][10]. - The net profit for 2022 was 1.6 billion yuan, with a decline to 1.35 billion yuan in 2023. The forecast for 2024 is 1.54 billion yuan, indicating a recovery trend [7][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The EPS for 2022 was 1.29 yuan, dropping to 1.08 yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 1.23 yuan in 2024 [7][10]. - Valuation Ratios: - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio was 9.9 in 2022, increasing to 11.8 in 2023, with projections of 10.3 in 2024, 8.7 in 2025, and 7.8 in 2026 [7][10]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio decreased from 1.3 in 2022 to 1.0 in 2023, with further declines expected [7][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on the core market of recycled aluminum, with a production capacity of approximately 1 million tons. The strategy includes optimizing product lines and increasing market share in high-value products, particularly in the new energy sector [9][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in product structure, which is expected to enhance profitability as the company expands into high-tech and high-value-added aluminum applications [21].