华金宏观·双循环周报（第55期）：再论央行买卖国债

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's buying and selling of government bonds is a classical yet modern monetary policy tool, essential for establishing the essence of credit currency backed by national credit[7] - Since 2015, proactive monetary issuance has been explored, with current mainstream tools being variations of secondary market government bond transactions[27] Current Economic Context - The necessity and urgency for the central bank to engage in government bond transactions are not high in the short term, despite being an ideal time for such actions[12] - The use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) has become a primary method for medium to long-term liquidity provision, with the current average RRR at 7%[13] Liquidity Tools and Efficiency - The transition to secondary market government bond transactions could clarify the relationship between interest rates and monetary supply, enhancing communication of monetary policy[60] - Existing liquidity tools, such as MLF and PSL, are seen as transitional, with the need for more stable and efficient monetary supply tools increasing over time[13] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - Current fiscal expansion financing is within the normal range of monetary credit transmission, reducing the need for large-scale primary market purchases to address liquidity shocks[31] - The potential scale required for secondary market transactions remains small, allowing existing tools to effectively manage liquidity needs in the coming years[31] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the monetary policy's easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the effectiveness of liquidity measures[19]