扩表持续，投行承压，结构调整

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CITIC Securities (600030.SH) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that CITIC Securities experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024, with operating income at 13.755 billion yuan, down 10.38% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.959 billion yuan, down 8.47% year-on-year. The decline is primarily attributed to significant pressure on investment banking due to cyclical impacts [1]. - The company aims to enhance its wealth management capabilities and is actively pursuing public fund license applications while expanding its global footprint through family offices in Hong Kong and wealth management platforms in Singapore [1]. - The report projects a decrease in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 by 6.0%, 5.8%, and 5.6% respectively, with expected net profits of 21.3 billion, 23.45 billion, and 25.24 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 10.1%, and 7.6% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, CITIC Securities reported a 10.38% decline in operating income to 13.755 billion yuan and an 8.47% decline in net profit to 4.959 billion yuan. The basic earnings per share decreased by 11.11% to 0.32 yuan [1]. - The investment banking revenue fell nearly 50% year-on-year to 0.869 billion yuan, influenced by regulatory changes and a significant drop in equity financing from 64.1 billion yuan to 19.2 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s asset scale increased by nearly 8% compared to the end of 2023, surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 4.52 times, up 0.17 percentage points [1][17]. Business Segments - The brokerage business revenue decreased by 5.78% to 2.442 billion yuan, while credit business revenue saw a significant drop of 44.18% to 0.325 billion yuan due to rising financial costs [1]. - Asset management revenue also declined by 5.59% to 2.358 billion yuan, reflecting the overall market conditions [1]. - The company plans to continue optimizing its liability structure and enhance cross-border funding management [1]. Earnings Forecasts - The earnings forecasts for CITIC Securities have been adjusted downwards for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 21.3 billion, 23.45 billion, and 25.24 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 8.0%, 10.1%, and 7.6% respectively [1][2][17]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are projected at 13.3, 12.1, and 11.3, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are expected to be 1.1, 1.0, and 1.0 [1][2].