Guoxin Securities·2024-04-28 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights the continuous release of transformation dividends, with profits showing resilience. In Q1 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 95.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.76 billion yuan, also up by 1.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on normalizing operations rather than just seasonal performance, with significant improvements in individual insurance channels and a stable recovery in core value indicators [1]. - The report emphasizes the optimization of asset allocation to cope with a low-interest-rate environment, with total investment assets reaching 2,344.79 billion yuan, a 4.2% increase from the end of 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the insurance service revenue was 66.97 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year. The individual insurance channel saw new premium income of 16.12 billion yuan, a 31.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The non-auto insurance business achieved a premium income of 36.01 billion yuan, growing 13.8% year-on-year, while the auto insurance segment focused on cost control and business transformation [1][2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Metrics - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2026 is 3.28, 3.52, and 3.65 yuan per share, respectively. The corresponding price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios are projected to be 0.43, 0.41, and 0.38 [2][7]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, with total operating revenue expected to grow from 344.28 billion yuan in 2024 to 377.72 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is implementing a second phase of its "Long Voyage" transformation strategy, focusing on enhancing the quality of its insurance products and services [1]. - The report notes that the company is adapting to regulatory changes in the bancassurance channel, which has temporarily affected new premium growth [1]. Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts and highlights the company's proactive approach to optimizing its overall asset allocation in response to current market conditions [1][4].