Novoray(688300) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-28 03:02Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company [19] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and its capacity optimization is timely [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in semiconductor demand and its own capacity structure optimization [19] - The demand for high-end packaging products is expected to grow rapidly due to the surge in computing power demand [19] - The company's high-end product layout is timely, with its high-end spherical silicon and aluminum products already in batch supply for HBM applications [19] - The company is targeting the demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates under the AI wave, with plans to build a 3000-ton advanced integrated circuit ultra-fine spherical powder production line [19] Financial Summary - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was 2 02 billion yuan (qoq +0 72%, yoy +39 46%), with a gross profit of 0 82 billion yuan (qoq +9 19%, yoy +55 20%) [19] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 0 52 billion yuan (qoq +5 13%, yoy +79 94%), meeting expectations [19] - The report maintains the company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts at 1 26/1 54/1 75 yuan, with growth rates of +35/22/13% [19] - The target price is maintained at 56 43 yuan, representing a 44 79X PE for 2024 [19] Industry Trends - According to Yole, the global advanced packaging market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10 6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching 78 6 billion USD by 2028 [19] - The demand for integrated circuits is expected to improve significantly due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the AI wave [19] Company Performance - The company's 2022A revenue was 662 million yuan, with a net profit of 188 million yuan [19] - The 2023A revenue was 712 million yuan, with a net profit of 174 million yuan [19] - The 2024E revenue is forecasted to be 884 million yuan, with a net profit of 234 million yuan [19] - The 2025E revenue is forecasted to be 1,044 million yuan, with a net profit of 287 million yuan [19] - The 2026E revenue is forecasted to be 1,137 million yuan, with a net profit of 325 million yuan [19] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2024E PE is 38 17X, and the 2025E PE is 31 23X [22] - The company's 2024E EV/EBITDA is 32 02, and the 2025E EV/EBITDA is 26 71 [19] - The company's 2024E PB is 6 68, and the 2025E PB is 5 88 [19] Key Financial Ratios - The company's 2024E operating margin is forecasted to be 29 3%, and the 2025E operating margin is forecasted to be 30 2% [19] - The company's 2024E ROE is forecasted to be 14 8%, and the 2025E ROE is forecasted to be 15 9% [19] - The company's 2024E ROIC is forecasted to be 13 9%, and the 2025E ROIC is forecasted to be 15 0% [19] Market Performance - The company's stock price has a 52-week range of 30 61-72 50 yuan [8] - The company's market capitalization is 8,934 million yuan [8]