GEM(SZ:002340) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-28 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in the shipment of new energy materials, with a significant boost in its recycling business driven by the "old-for-new" policy [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 456 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 164%, while the revenue reached 8.354 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's ternary precursor shipment volume has rapidly increased, maintaining a leading global position, with Q1 2024 shipments reaching 51,000 tons, a 114% year-on-year growth [1][10]. - The nickel project initiated production in 2023, expected to contribute to sustained profits, with Q1 2024 shipments of nickel reaching 10,500 tons, also exceeding production targets [1][12]. - The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's waste resource utilization business, with a comprehensive recycling network established across 11 provinces [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 30.529 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 935 million yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 12.24%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.225 billion, 1.635 billion, and 2.003 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 34%, and 23% respectively [1][19]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.24, 0.32, and 0.39 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 20, and 16 [1][19]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2023 to 9.4% by 2026 [2][16]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the ternary precursor market, with high-nickel products accounting for over 76% of total shipments in 2023 [1][10]. - The company has established a comprehensive recycling and waste processing network, covering over 40% of China's territory, enhancing its resource utilization capabilities [1][14].