Huachuang Securities·2024-04-28 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, indicating a positive outlook on the supply-demand dynamics and industry prosperity amid geopolitical disturbances [1] - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand landscape, with global oil transportation demand increasing by 6.2% year-on-year in 2023, while supply constraints persist with only one VLCC delivered in Q1 2024 [1][9] - The target price is set at 21.1 yuan, representing a 34% upside from the current price of 15.76 yuan, based on a 2.5x PB valuation for 2024 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached 5.84 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 31.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [1][8] - The company’s operating data shows a total oil tanker transportation volume of 42.09 million tons, down 2.0% year-on-year, while the transportation turnover volume increased by 7.0% to 150.35 billion ton-miles [1][8] - The average VLCC-TCE for Q1 2024 was approximately $44,100 per day, a decrease of 19.4% year-on-year [1][8] Business Segment Analysis - Revenue from domestic trade, foreign trade, and LNG transportation in Q1 2024 was 1.458 billion, 3.813 billion, and 558 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.6%, +3.0%, and +37.4% [1][8] - The gross profit margins for domestic trade, foreign trade, and LNG were 25.2%, 31.9%, and 45.8%, with year-on-year changes of +6.3 percentage points, -1.1 percentage points, and -8.6 percentage points respectively [1][8] - Foreign trade oil transportation revenue was 2.482 billion for crude oil, 722 million for refined oil, and 609 million for oil vessel leasing, with respective year-on-year changes of +3.2%, +7.8%, and -3.0% [1][8] Cost Structure - Fuel costs amounted to 1.31 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, accounting for 32.8% of total costs [1][8] - Port fees were 180 million, up 21.4% year-on-year, making up 4.6% of total costs [1][8] - Crew costs were 610 million, accounting for 15.4% of total costs, with a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year [1][8] Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.64 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.31 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.56, and 1.74 yuan [1][9]