Xinda Securities·2024-04-28 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected performance improvements and market conditions [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from economic stimulus policies leading to improved demand and stable coal prices. The integrated operations and high long-term contract ratio provide a high degree of certainty in operational performance, supported by strong cash flow and dividend attributes [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 87.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.884 billion yuan, a decline of 14.7% year-on-year. The cash flow from operating activities was 28.553 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 23.57%, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. Coal Segment - The coal production for Q1 2024 was 81.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while coal sales reached 117 million tons, up 8.8% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal decreased by 7.7% year-on-year to 573 yuan/ton [2]. - The total revenue from the coal segment was 69.285 billion yuan, with a profit of 13.406 billion yuan, reflecting a 23% decline year-on-year [2]. Power Segment - The total power generation in Q1 2024 was 55.35 billion kWh, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year, with total sales of 52.16 billion kWh also up by 7.0%. Despite a decrease in coal power prices, the power segment's revenue reached 24.075 billion yuan, a 5.3% increase, with profits rising by 11.1% to 3.188 billion yuan [3]. Transportation and Coal Chemical Segment - The railway division's revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year, while the port division's revenue increased by 5.6%. The shipping division saw a significant profit increase of 121.7% [4]. - The coal chemical division experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.1% and a profit decrease of 5.9% [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 61.779 billion yuan, 64.291 billion yuan, and 66.118 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The expected EPS for these years is 3.11 yuan, 3.24 yuan, and 3.33 yuan [7].