财信宏观策略&市场资金跟踪周报:二次探底或结束,聚焦高景气板块
Caixin Securities·2024-04-28 09:30

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market may have completed a second bottom, with pressures from earnings expected to dissipate, and positive policy expectations catalyzing a recovery in Chinese economic data and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [24][3][17] - The report highlights that the recent performance of the Hang Seng Index and A-shares was driven by foreign capital, influenced by weakening economic data from developed economies and a depreciating yen, which has led to increased allocations to Chinese assets [3][24][23] - The report suggests that the macroeconomic environment in China is entering a recovery phase, with a moderate economic rebound and a low inflation environment, making it suitable for equity asset allocation [24][18] Group 2 - The report notes that the industrial profits of major enterprises in China showed a positive growth of 4.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating a weak recovery trend in the economy [18][19] - It emphasizes that high-growth sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and cyclical recovery sectors are expected to perform well, while consumer and financial sectors may face continued pressure [19][24] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment opportunities, including resource sectors (copper, aluminum, gold, silver), TMT sectors (computing, media), and new productivity sectors (industrial machinery, robotics) [28][32][24] Group 3 - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 13.34, which is at a historical low percentile, suggesting that A-shares are relatively undervalued [36][57] - It highlights that the market is currently experiencing a shift in risk appetite, with a potential increase in focus on high-growth sectors as market sentiment improves [3][24][17] - The report also mentions that the foreign capital inflow into the A-share market has reached historical highs, indicating strong interest from international investors [3][12][24]