业绩实现较快增长，期待网络融合效果显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7][15] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in performance, with a projected revenue of 36.28 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit of 746 million yuan, up 13.3% [4][14][37] - The integration project with JD Logistics is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, despite initial impacts on gross margin [6][14][37] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts slightly, with net profits expected to be 1.11 billion yuan, 1.44 billion yuan, and 1.72 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 29%, and 19% [7][14][37] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 31.39 billion yuan - 2023: 36.28 billion yuan - 2024E: 41.79 billion yuan - 2025E: 46.31 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.07 billion yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2022: 649 million yuan - 2023: 746 million yuan - 2024E: 1.11 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.44 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.72 billion yuan - The company's EBIT margin is expected to improve from 1.7% in 2022 to 3.8% by 2026, while the net asset return (ROE) is projected to rise from 9.4% to 15.8% over the same period [2][4][7][27] Business Performance - The company's core business, express delivery, accounted for 89% of revenue in 2023, with express and logistics revenue reaching 32.28 billion yuan and 8.37 billion yuan respectively, showing growth rates of 18.2% and 29.6% [14][37] - The integration with JD Logistics has contributed significantly to revenue growth, with JD Logistics accounting for 3.24 billion yuan in revenue in 2023 [14][37] Management Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced management expenses, with management expense ratios decreasing by 1.89 percentage points in 2023 and 0.74 percentage points in Q1 2024, attributed to ongoing technological empowerment and process optimization [6][14][37] Valuation Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26.3 in 2022 to 10.0 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [2][27] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.47 in 2022 to 1.57 in 2026, reflecting a more favorable valuation [2][27] Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by strategic partnerships and operational improvements, with a maintained "Buy" rating reflecting confidence in future performance [1][7][14]