【粤开宏观】物价保卫战：低迷原因、展望及应对

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 5.3% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only 4.2%, indicating persistent price weakness[1] - The GDP deflator index for Q1 2024 was -1.1%, with CPI and PPI year-on-year at 0% and -2.7% respectively, marking 18 consecutive months of negative PPI growth[1] CPI and PPI Analysis - CPI's stagnation is primarily driven by food prices, which account for approximately 19% of consumer spending, with food prices down 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2024[6][45] - Durable goods prices have significantly declined, with communication tools' CPI down 2.1% year-on-year, reflecting supply-side dominance despite strong demand[10][48] - PPI's decline is largely attributed to the petrochemical and construction material sectors, which together contributed nearly 90% to the PPI's year-on-year drop[55] Future Projections - CPI and PPI are expected to recover moderately, with forecasts suggesting CPI rising from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024, and PPI improving from -3% to -0.8%[87] - The long-term trend of price weakness in China is attributed to high savings rates and low consumption, alongside significant changes in supply and demand dynamics[71][90] Policy Recommendations - Greater macroeconomic control is needed to stimulate price recovery, including more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize supply and demand[92] - The government should focus on stabilizing real estate and stock market prices to improve market confidence and support economic recovery[75]