Guohai Securities·2024-04-28 14:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights stable coal production and sales, with increased profitability in electricity and railway sectors [1][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 87.65 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a decrease of 3.3% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.88 billion yuan, up 39.0% quarter-on-quarter but down 14.7% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - Total electricity generation reached 55.35 billion kWh in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7% [3] - Total electricity sales were 52.16 billion kWh, also up 7% year-on-year [3] - Average selling price for electricity was 409 yuan/MWh, down 2.6% year-on-year [3] - The electricity segment's revenue and costs increased by 5.3% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a total profit of 3.188 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year [3] Railway and Other Businesses - Railway transportation turnover increased by 10.1% year-on-year to 82 billion ton-km [3] - Port loading volume was 6.5 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [3] - Shipping volume decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, while shipping turnover increased by 3.1% year-on-year [3] Coal Sector - Coal production was 81.3 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [5] - Coal sales reached 117 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of coal was 573 yuan/ton, down 7.7% year-on-year [5] - The coal segment's total profit was 13.41 billion yuan, down 23.0% year-on-year [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 363.5 billion, 376.5 billion, and 390.8 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 60.84 billion, 63.26 billion, and 65.28 billion yuan [6][8] - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 3.06, 3.18, and 3.29 yuan, respectively [8] - The current P/E ratio is projected to be 12.92 for 2024, decreasing to 12.04 by 2026 [8]