RUNNER(SH:603408) Guohai Securities·2024-04-29 00:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in overseas demand, with impressive performance in its financial results. In 2023, it achieved a revenue of 4.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.52%, and a net profit of 425 million yuan, a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2023, the revenue surged to 1.244 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.27%, and the net profit increased by 33.69% to 135 million yuan [3][21]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, with a revenue of 3.309 billion yuan from overseas markets, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and 999.8 million yuan from domestic markets, up 8.56% year-on-year [4][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 25.97% in 2023, an increase of 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.79%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.44 yuan per share for 2023, totaling 196 million yuan, which represents 46.13% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [23]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.011 billion yuan, 5.790 billion yuan, and 6.696 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 501 million yuan, 585 million yuan, and 683 million yuan [8][27]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 16% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, while net profit is expected to grow by 18% in 2024 and 17% in the following years [27]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand influence through a multi-brand strategy, leveraging e-commerce platforms and new marketing channels, while also expanding its offline presence across seven major regions in China [4][8]. - The company is actively investing in overseas production capabilities, including the expansion of its Thailand base and exploring opportunities in Mexico [22]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as the company continues to grow [8][27].