Q1产销同比双增，煤价下降业绩走弱

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 23.23 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is expected to see significant growth in its coal business due to the imminent injection of quality assets, with long-term profit growth anticipated [4]. - The company's Q1 2024 financial results show a decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year, but a substantial increase compared to the previous quarter [6][9]. - The coal production and sales have increased year-on-year, although prices and margins have declined significantly [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A Revenue: 200,829 million CNY, 2023A Revenue: 150,025 million CNY (down 25%), 2024E Revenue: 180,174 million CNY (up 20%) [5]. - 2022A Net Profit: 30,774 million CNY, 2023A Net Profit: 20,140 million CNY (down 35%), 2024E Net Profit: 21,740 million CNY (up 8%) [5]. - EPS for 2024E is projected at 4.14 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 5.6 [5]. - Q1 2024 Results: - Revenue: 39,633 million CNY (down 10.78% YoY, up 164.45% QoQ) [6]. - Net Profit: 3,757 million CNY (down 33.54% YoY, down 18.58% QoQ) [6]. Coal Business Performance - Production and Sales: - Q1 2024 self-produced coal output: 34.635 million tons (up 15.4% YoY, down 0.5% QoQ) [7]. - Self-produced coal sales: 31.131 million tons (up 12.7% YoY, down 4.7% QoQ) [7]. - Average price per ton: 675.7 CNY (down 29.4% YoY, down 11.4% QoQ) [7]. - Cost and Margin: - Average cost per ton: 326.6 CNY (down 6.5% YoY, up 9.0% QoQ) [7]. - Average gross margin per ton: 349.1 CNY (down 42.6% YoY, down 24.6% QoQ) [7]. Chemical Business Performance - Methanol and Acetic Acid: - Q1 2024 methanol production: 1.074 million tons (up 5.4% YoY, up 9.4% QoQ) [8]. - Acetic acid production: 246,000 tons (down 14.6% YoY, down 13.7% QoQ) [8]. - Methanol gross margin improved significantly, while acetic acid faced challenges [8][9]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 180.174 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits of 21.740 billion CNY, and EPS of 2.92 CNY in 2025 [9]. - The current stock price of 23.23 CNY corresponds to a P/E ratio of 7.9 for 2024E, indicating a favorable valuation [9].