周报：美联储降息预期再次受挫，我国中长期债牛支撑逻辑仍持续

Economic Indicators - The US Q1 GDP growth rate was 1.6%, below the expected 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index increased by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the expected 3.4%[1] - The US March PCE year-on-year growth was 2.8%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.7%[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before August, with a potential cut only once before the end of the year[1] - The CME data suggests a 97.6% probability that the Fed will not raise rates in the upcoming meetings until at least September[12] Industrial and Real Estate Performance - In Q1, profits of industrial enterprises reached 150.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%[1] - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.9% in Q1, a significant improvement from the previous year's decline of 2.0%[1] - Real estate sales in major cities showed declines of 31%, 42%, and 30% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector[1] Bond Market Trends - As of April 26, the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.67%, up 5 basis points from the previous week[3] - China's 10-year government bond yield was reported at 2.31%, an increase of 6 basis points from the previous week[4] - The yield spread between short-term and long-term bonds widened significantly, reaching 64.38 basis points, up 8.31 basis points from the previous week[4] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's recent operations maintained liquidity balance, with a total of 100 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[4] - The LPR for one year remained unchanged at 3.45%, aligning with market expectations[19]