山西汾酒：2023年顺利收官，2024Q1开门红利润超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 295 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 245.58 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 31.928 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%, and a net profit of 10.438 billion CNY, up 28.93% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.338 billion CNY, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.262 billion CNY, reflecting a 29.95% year-on-year growth [4][5]. - The growth momentum of the Qinghua series is strong, with its revenue contribution reaching 46% and a growth rate of approximately 25%-30%. The company has established a dedicated division for Qinghua 30 to enhance high-end product marketing [4][6]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for 2024, with expectations for Qinghua 20 to become a billion-level product [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue was 31.928 billion CNY, with a net profit of 10.438 billion CNY. For 2024, the expected revenue is 38.594 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 13.402 billion CNY, indicating a growth rate of 20.88% and 28.40% respectively [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.31%, with an increase to 77.46% in Q1 2024 due to price adjustments and product structure optimization [4][6]. Product and Market Analysis - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 23.203 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 22.56% year-on-year, while other liquor products contributed 8.540 billion CNY, with a growth of 20.15% [4][5]. - The company has 3,940 distributors as of the end of 2023, with a net increase of 303 distributors, indicating a robust distribution network [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth of 21% for 2024, 17% for 2025, and 16% for 2026, with net profit growth of 28%, 22%, and 16% respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the potential for the Qinghua series to drive future growth, particularly with the introduction of new high-end products [4][6].