Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-29 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 12.32 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 36.78x and a PB of 0.97x [2][4][10]. Core Views - The company's investment business has faced pressure due to a year-on-year decline, leading to a decrease in performance. The company is deepening the synergy between investment, financing, insurance, research, and wealth management, which is expected to enhance its comprehensive financial services and strengthen its position [2][3]. - The company's Q1 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 4.762 billion CNY and 911 million CNY, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -44.11% and -62.56%. The weighted average ROE decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 0.56%, indicating performance below expectations [2][3]. - The report highlights that the company's investment income has decreased by 50.35% year-on-year to 1.107 billion CNY, significantly impacting overall revenue. This decline is attributed to the domestic market's fluctuations and rising US interest rates, which have negatively affected equity investment returns [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance for 2022A, 2023A, and projected 2024E shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit. Revenue decreased from 25.948 billion CNY in 2022 to 22.953 billion CNY in 2023, with an expected recovery to 24.622 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [3][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders dropped from 6.545 billion CNY in 2022 to 1.008 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 4.376 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 334.0% [3][17]. - The report also notes a decrease in the company's operating profit margin from 30.5% in 2022 to 6.3% in 2023, with an expected recovery to 20.5% in 2024 [3][17]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 8.47 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 7.78 to 10.89 CNY. The total market capitalization is 110.654 billion CNY, with a circulating A-share of 8.873 billion shares [5][10].