扣非净利连续两季度转正，领先船价与滞后业绩指标验证成功

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding (600150) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2023, achieving a net profit of 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1614.7%, with a positive turnaround in the last two quarters [3] - New ship prices are on the rise, and the company is entering a high-price ship delivery period, indicating a beginning of profit release [3] - The company has seen a rapid growth in new orders, with a total of 128 new ship orders in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 103.79% [3] - The shipbuilding capacity constraints and aging fleet are driving up ship prices, creating a favorable trend for the shipbuilding sector [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024E-2026E to be 5.628 billion, 10.704 billion, and 12.237 billion yuan respectively, indicating substantial growth potential [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the total revenue reached 74.839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.8% [4] - The gross profit margin improved to 10.6% in 2023, up by 3.90 percentage points from 2022 [3][4] - The company expects a decline in revenue for 2024E to 72.306 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in 2025E and 2026E [4] Order and Delivery Insights - The company delivered 81 civil ships in 2023, achieving 122.80% of the annual tonnage target [3] - The backlog of contracts at the end of 2023 was 625.39 billion yuan, an increase of 26.38% from the previous year [3] Market Trends - The new ship price index increased by 10.2% from the beginning of 2023, indicating a stable upward trend in ship prices [3] - The report highlights that the shipbuilding price cycle is influenced by long-term demand and environmental regulations, with expectations for continued price increases [3] Profitability Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for the upcoming years, with a projected price-to-order ratio of 0.93, indicating room for valuation improvement [3]