2023年报及2024一季度报告点评:特定干扰渐见底,海外持续高增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 544 million (up 14.59%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 154 million (down 24.61%) for 2023. The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 146 million (up 6.67%) and a net profit of 31 million (down 31.91%) [3][6]. - Revenue from specific acute respiratory infectious disease-related products significantly declined, with a 49.54% drop in 2023, while overseas demand continued to grow strongly, with a 37.08% increase in regular overseas business [4][5]. - The company maintains high R&D investment, with R&D expense ratio above 20%, indicating a focus on long-term growth despite short-term profit pressures [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 544 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 154 million, reflecting a decrease of 24.61% [3][7]. - For 2024, the projected revenues are 631 million, 782 million, and 933 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 16.02%, 24.04%, and 19.22% [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from specific acute respiratory infectious disease-related products accounted for only 8.3% of total revenue in 2023, down over 10.5 percentage points from the previous year. This segment's revenue for Q4 2023 was 5.47 million (down 76.87%) and for Q1 2024 was 7.55 million (down 56.90%) [4][5]. - Excluding this segment, the company generated 499 million in revenue in 2023, a 29.46% increase, with Q4 2023 revenue at 126 million (up 27.92%) and Q1 2024 at 138 million (up 16.00%) [4][5]. Cost Structure - The sales expense ratio for 2023 was 30.8% (up 7.2 percentage points), while the management expense ratio was 15.5% (up 0.4 percentage points). The R&D expense ratio was 23.0% (down 1.0 percentage point) [5][6]. - In Q4 2023, the sales expense ratio increased to 39.0% (up 7.9 percentage points), and in Q1 2024, it was 32.4% (up 7.3 percentage points) [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high R&D investment, with projected net profits of 173 million, 218 million, and 275 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 12.80%, 26.05%, and 25.89% [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.44, 1.82, and 2.29 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26.00, 20.63, and 16.39 [6][7].