SSAW Hotels(SZ:301073) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][5]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 534 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.16%, and a 40% increase compared to 2019. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, recovering to 42% of the 2019 level [1][2]. - The company experienced strong revenue growth due to post-pandemic recovery and increased investment in direct stores, although profit performance was under pressure due to new store ramp-up and disturbance costs from reserve stores [1][2]. - The company distributed a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares in 2023, with a payout ratio of 95.6%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 0.6% at the current price [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022: Revenue of 342 million yuan, net profit of 30 million yuan - 2023: Revenue of 534 million yuan, net profit of 31 million yuan - 2024E: Revenue of 758 million yuan, net profit of 121 million yuan, representing a 297.4% increase from 2023 [2][12]. - Key Financial Ratios: - EBIT Margin: 16.5% in 2023, expected to rise to 29.7% in 2024E - Return on Equity (ROE): 3.1% in 2023, projected to increase to 11.4% in 2024E [2][12]. Operational Insights - The company opened 34 new hotels in 2023, including 6 direct stores, and signed contracts for 55 new hotels. The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for direct stores increased by 15.9% compared to 2019, with occupancy rate (OCC) up by 0.6 percentage points and Average Daily Rate (ADR) up by 14.8% [1][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.28%, and a net profit of 4.66 million yuan, a 13.94% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to sign contracts for 60 new projects and open 63 new hotels in 2024, with a focus on balancing revenue and profit through both direct and light-asset expansions [1][2]. - The company is transitioning from a vertical management model to a regional management model to enhance organizational efficiency, which is expected to support future franchise expansion [1][2].