Jiangsu United Water Technology (603291) 民生证券·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 14.70 CNY per share [9] Core Views - The company's overseas projects are progressing steadily, and its wastewater treatment business is contributing incremental growth [1] - The company's water supply business is developing steadily, and its overseas projects are progressing smoothly, with good cash flow [8] - The wastewater treatment business has shown significant quality and efficiency improvements, which are expected to drive the company's organic growth [8] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.128 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 159 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.80% [8] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 235 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 34 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 96.90% [8] - The company's comprehensive gross profit margin in 2023 was 35.08%, an increase of 3.20 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reduced costs in wastewater treatment and improved energy efficiency [8] Business Operations - As of the end of 2023, the company had a water supply and treatment capacity of approximately 2.7 million m³/d, with a water supply agreement scale of 2.1 million m³/d and a completed scale of 905,000 m³/d [8] - In 2023, the company completed water sales of 193 million m³, a year-on-year increase of 7.88%, and achieved water supply and related business revenue of 617 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.02% [8] - The company's wastewater treatment and resource utilization settlement volume reached 152 million m³ in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.16%, with revenue of 297 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.73% [8] Overseas Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its overseas presence, with the Dhaka project in Bangladesh achieving commercial operation certification in January 2023 and completing the first phase of water production [8] - The second phase of the Dhaka project is in the preparatory stage and is expected to further enhance the company's performance [8] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.49/0.61/0.76 CNY per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29/23/19 times based on the closing price on April 26 [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 14.23%, 15.89%, and 16.90% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [19] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 31.29%, 23.06%, and 25.08% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [19] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 9.34% in 2023 to 13.69% in 2026 [16] - The company's net profit margin is projected to rise from 14.13% in 2023 to 18.45% in 2026 [12] - The company's asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 51.72% in 2023 to 47.69% in 2026 [19]