Haitong Securities·2024-04-29 02:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company is a global leader in clean energy operations, maintaining its position as the world's largest wind power operator since 2015. The controlling shareholder is the State Energy Investment Group, holding a direct stake of 54.9% as of the 2023 annual report [5][6] - As of the end of 2023, the company's installed capacity reached 35.59 million kilowatts, with wind power, thermal power, and other renewable energy sources accounting for 27.75 million, 1.88 million, and 5.96 million kilowatts respectively. The total power generation for 2023 was 76.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.92% [5][6] - The company achieved revenue of 37.64 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [5][6] Summary by Sections Project Reserves and Subsidy Returns - The company has a rich reserve of projects and expects to accelerate its self-built capacity. The State Energy Group's new energy installation target for the 14th Five-Year Plan is 70-80 GW, with the company as the main platform for new energy [6] - From 2021 to 2023, the company acquired a total of 59.5 GW of new development indicators, indicating sufficient project reserves. In 2023, the company received 6.42 billion yuan in national subsidies [6] - The company plans to start new energy projects of 10 GW in 2024, aiming to put 7.5 GW into operation [6] Business Integration and Green Energy Value - The company is advancing business integration, with a commitment to inject existing wind power assets and integrate thermal power operations within three years (2022-2024) [6] - As of the first half of 2021, the group had over 20 GW of wind power assets awaiting injection, including approximately 11 GW from the former Shenhua Group [6] - The company’s thermal power assets are relatively small, with a net profit of about 180 million yuan in 2023, indicating that the impact of future integration will be minimal [6] Upgrading Old Units - The renovation of old units is expected to enhance the utilization of quality wind resources and improve project profitability. The company has 6.56 million kilowatts of existing units built before 2010, with potential capacity increases exceeding 9 million kilowatts [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be 0.90, 1.03, and 1.19 yuan for 2024-2026. Given the company’s status as a green energy leader and the expectation of asset injections, a valuation premium is warranted, with a target PE of 22-24 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 19.8-21.6 yuan [6][9]