宏观周报：总书记西部调研、汽车以旧换新落地与美国滞胀再现

Group 1: Economic Insights - The automotive trade-in program is expected to boost consumption by approximately CNY 251 billion to CNY 464.5 billion, accounting for 1.3%-2.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods above the limit in 2024[1] - In Q1 2024, the US GDP growth rate was 1.6%, lower than the Federal Reserve's GDPNow model prediction of 2.7% and analyst expectations of 2.5%[2] - Domestic industrial profits have significantly declined, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.3% in the first three months, indicating weak demand and price pressures[25] Group 2: Market Trends - Foreign capital inflow into the stock market reached a record high on a single day, driven primarily by trading institutions, reflecting optimism about future economic recovery[1] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a notable increase in service consumption, contributing 1.78% to GDP growth, indicating a shift towards stronger service sector performance[59] - The automotive trade-in program includes subsidies of CNY 7,000 for scrapping fuel vehicles and CNY 10,000 for switching to new energy vehicles, funded by a 60:40 ratio between central and local governments[45] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - March fiscal revenue showed weakness, with VAT declining by 7.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue remained under pressure due to various tax reduction policies[33] - The central bank's recent policies support a maximum loan issuance ratio of 100% for traditional and new energy vehicles, facilitating the trade-in program[45] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in Q2 2024, following a slow start in local bond issuance due to previous debt issuance affecting project planning[4]