Huachuang Securities·2024-04-29 04:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.00 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 18x [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 met expectations, showcasing its competitive strength amid industry pressures. Revenue for Q1 2024 was 21.328 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 32.08%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.502 billion CNY, down 41.14% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that the cement price in the Yangtze River region may have bottomed out, with expectations for demand recovery. Recent price increases in the East China region indicate a potential for improved profitability as supply constraints are expected to strengthen [2]. - The company's integrated business is rapidly developing, with significant capital expenditures planned for 2024, including new clinker and cement capacities [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 140.999 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%. However, for 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% to 138.578 billion CNY [9]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 10.430 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The forecast for 2024 shows a further decline to 8.897 billion CNY, down 14.7% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is adjusted to 1.68 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x for 2024, 12x for 2025, and 11x for 2026 [2][9].