INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-04-29 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Ping An (601318) [2] Core Views - The overall performance is in line with expectations, with a 4.3% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to the technology, asset management, and property insurance sectors [2] - The OPAT decreased by 3% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year, capital market fluctuations, and small and micro enterprise credit business [2] - The NBV saw a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year on a retrospective basis, driven by improvements in productivity and value rate [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.7 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, mainly affected by technology (-107%), asset management (-30%), and property insurance (-14%) [2] - OPAT decreased by 3% year-on-year, with life and health insurance segments showing a slight increase of 2.2% due to asset scale growth and operational deviations [2] - The retrospective NBV growth of 20.7% was attributed to enhanced productivity and value rates [2] Life Insurance - The agency channel's per capita NBV increased by 56.4%, benefiting from improved sales capabilities and product structure adjustments [2] - The number of agents decreased by 4% from the beginning of the year to 333,000, which may limit sustainable business growth [2] - The first-year new business decreased by 13.6% due to regulatory policies and high base effects, but the overall value growth remains promising with a 6.5 percentage point increase in value rate [2] Property Insurance - Property insurance premium income grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with auto insurance growth slowing down [2] - The combined operating ratio (COR) increased by 0.9 percentage points to 99.6%, primarily due to claims from snow disasters and guarantee insurance [2] - Excluding guarantee insurance, the overall COR was 98.4%, with expectations for gradual improvement in the coming quarters [2] Investment Income - The annualized net investment return rate fell to 3.0%, mainly due to declining interest rates affecting asset yields [2] - The annualized comprehensive investment return rate decreased to 3.1%, influenced by equity market volatility [2] - Estimated non-bank business interest income and investment returns decreased by 3.3% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - Short-term new business sales face growth pressure due to high base effects, but value rate improvements alleviate concerns about value growth [2] - Asset-side risks, particularly in real estate, remain a core valuation pressure, though trends indicate potential alleviation with economic recovery [2] - The report adjusts EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 5.57, 6.12, and 7.10 yuan, respectively, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [2]