泛自营有所回撤，静待市场回暖弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in earnings due to a high base effect in Q1 2024, with a revenue of CNY 23.77 billion, down 43% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 3.28 billion, down 60% [2][10]. - The company is expected to maintain its asset management advantages and enhance its institutional client service capabilities, with projected EPS of CNY 0.30 and CNY 0.33 for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Q1 2024 Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 106.27 billion for 2023, a decrease of 0.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 19.64 billion, down 25.51% [10][11]. - The adjusted leverage ratio decreased to 3.18 times in Q1 2024, down 0.26 from the beginning of the year [2]. 2. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage income for 2023 was CNY 22.53 billion, down 18% year-on-year, with financial product distribution income at CNY 4.13 billion, down 12% [2][19]. - Asset management business net income decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, while the scale of managed assets increased by 13% to CNY 844 billion [2][25]. - Investment banking revenue increased by 9.3% year-on-year to CNY 10.44 billion in 2023, but saw a significant decline of 69% in Q1 2024 [2][38]. 3. Investment and Financial Performance - The company achieved self-operated investment income of CNY 7.65 billion in 2023, an increase of 11% year-on-year, but saw a 68% decline in Q1 2024 [2][43]. - Interest income (adjusted) was CNY 16.57 billion in 2023, up 2% year-on-year, with a notable decrease of 44.3% in Q1 2024 [2][50]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in the capital market, with an expected revenue of CNY 11.496 billion in 2024, representing an 8.2% increase year-on-year [53]. - The reasonable value per share is estimated at CNY 7.78, based on a 1.2 times PB valuation for 2024 [2][53].