Shandong Daye (SH:603278) Dongxing Securities·2024-04-29 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [8][26]. Core Insights - The company's tire wire business is a strong competitive pillar, achieving revenue of 2.31 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 41.58% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 5.5 percentage points to 9.73% [1]. - The company has shown significant growth in production, with tire wire output increasing by 21.55% to 428,000 tons, capturing a market share of 38.3% [1]. - The company’s overall revenue for 2023 reached 5.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.58%, with a net profit of 54.7 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [8][26]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue growing from 447.5 million yuan in 2020 to 1.349 billion yuan in 2023, a 201.4% increase [9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 6.852 billion yuan, 7.907 billion yuan, and 8.372 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.3%, 15.4%, and 5.9% [26]. Summary by Sections Tire Wire Business - The tire wire business is expected to continue optimizing its gross margin, potentially reaching 12% by 2025 due to high market share and strong growth prospects [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate for tire wire remains exceptionally high at 107%, indicating strong market competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 174 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 455 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 63.74%, 101.06%, and 29.8% [26]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 11.79% by 2026, driven by cost optimization initiatives across various projects [2][26]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is supported by the expansion of its product lines, including the introduction of new products and the enhancement of production capabilities [1][9]. - The steel cord business has also entered a phase of substantial optimization, contributing to the company's second growth curve, with revenue from this segment reaching 2.835 billion yuan in 2023 [21].