煤炭周报：节前补库释放，煤炭价格反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to rebound due to several factors, including government funding for infrastructure projects and a decrease in port inventories [3][4]. - The overall coal supply is tightening, with production declines and safety inspections affecting output [3][4]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in coal prices for 2024, driven by reduced production and stable demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 7% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.8% as of April 26, 2024 [60]. - The prices for different coal types show mixed trends, with thermal coal prices decreasing while coking coal prices are on the rise [7][13]. Price and Event Review - As of April 26, 2024, the price for Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is 824 CNY/ton, down 0.24% from the previous week [5][13]. - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang port has increased to 2170 CNY/ton, up 1.4% [4][18]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a slight tightening in coal supply due to safety inspections leading to production cuts [3][4]. - The railway input to Qinhuangdao port has increased by 5.17%, indicating a rise in coal transportation [37]. Inventory Analysis - As of April 28, 2024, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory decreased by 4.02% to 501,000 tons, while key power plant inventories increased by 3.55% [45][46]. - The report highlights a divergence in inventory levels between southern and northern ports, with southern ports seeing a decrease [44]. International Coal Market - The report indicates a mixed performance in international coal prices, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 88.75 USD/ton, showing a slight increase [51]. - The price gap between domestic and international coal has narrowed for thermal coal but widened for coking coal [57]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend capabilities and those positioned for growth in the upcoming cycles, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6][6]. - It emphasizes the potential for price recovery in coking coal due to improved downstream demand and operational efficiencies [4][6].