2024年一季报点评：一季度产销量下滑影响短期业绩，新、老能源未来皆有较大成长空间

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The decline in Q1 performance is primarily due to the drop in coal market prices and the company's reduced coal production and sales volume. However, the reversal of accounts receivable impairment (CNY 110 million) and a decrease in taxes and surcharges (CNY 220 million year-on-year) provided some uplift to performance [2][3] - The coal production for Q1 was 8.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 8.28 million tons, down 22.6% year-on-year. The average selling price of commercial coal was CNY 589 per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year, and the unit cost was CNY 361 per ton, up 5.5% year-on-year, leading to a unit gross profit of CNY 227 per ton, down 32.7% year-on-year [5] - Future growth is anticipated as new mines are expected to increase production capacity, with the Ping Shu and Yu Shu Po mines each projected to reach 5 million tons per year, and the new Qi Yuan mine set to commence production [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of CNY 6.16 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 870 million, down 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and down 49.8% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 780 million, down 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and down 54.6% year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are CNY 25.4 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 29.8 billion, respectively, with net profits of CNY 4.016 billion, CNY 4.594 billion, and CNY 5.012 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -22%, +14%, and +9% [4][7] - The current price of the stock is CNY 9.32, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.37 for 2024, 7.32 for 2025, and 6.71 for 2026 [4][8]