Anjoy food(603345) 中国银河·2024-04-29 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Anjoy Foods (603345) [1] Core Views - Anjoy Foods achieved robust revenue growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 14.05 billion yuan (+15.3% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion yuan (+34.2% YoY) [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue grew by 17.7% YoY to 3.75 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.2% YoY to 440 million yuan [1] - The company's gross margin has improved for four consecutive quarters, reaching 26.6% in Q1 2024 (+1.8 ppts YoY), driven by product structure optimization and lower raw material costs [1] Business Performance Product Breakdown - In 2023, revenue from staple foods/meat products/fish products grew by +5.4%/+10.2%/+11.8% respectively, while frozen dishes surged by +29.8% [1] - 39 products achieved annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2024, revenue from staple foods/meat products/fish products/dishes grew by +4.4%/+27.7%/+31.5%/+12.3% respectively [1] Regional Performance - Northeast/North China/East China/South China/Central China/Northwest/Southwest/Overseas markets grew by +16.6%/+30.7%/+8.4%/+11.7%/+18.4%/+28.1%/+21.2%/+18.4% respectively in 2023 [1] Channel Performance - In 2023, distributor/supermarket/special channel/new retail/e-commerce revenue grew by +16.0%/-13.4%/+28.9%/-0.3%/+145.9% respectively [1] - The number of distributors reached 1,964 (+7.0% YoY) [1] Financial Performance Profitability - 2023 gross margin reached 23.2% (+1.3 ppts YoY), with net profit margin at 10.5% (+1.5 ppts YoY) [1] - Q1 2024 net profit margin reached 11.7% (+0.3 ppts YoY) [1] Cost Structure - 2023 sales expense ratio decreased to 6.6% (-0.6 ppts YoY) [1] - 2023 management expense ratio remained stable at 2.7% (-0.1 ppts YoY) [1] Future Outlook - The company has released a 2024-2026 shareholder return plan, raising the minimum dividend payout ratio to 40% [1] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.74/1.99/2.28 billion yuan, representing YoY growth of +17.6%/+14.6%/+14.6% [1] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.9/6.8/7.8 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14/12/11X [1] Financial Projections Income Statement - 2024-2026 revenue is projected at 15.90/18.17/20.74 billion yuan, with growth rates of +13.2%/+14.3%/+14.1% [2] - 2024-2026 net profit is projected at 1.74/1.99/2.28 billion yuan, with growth rates of +17.6%/+14.6%/+14.6% [2] Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 17.30 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.39 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Shareholders' equity is projected to increase from 12.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.67 billion yuan in 2026 [3] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to grow from 1.96 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.84 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Capital expenditures are projected to remain stable at around 1.37 billion yuan annually from 2024-2026 [3]