KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519)2024-04-29 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 1,709.43 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 458 billion in Q1 2024, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of RMB 241 billion, up 15.7% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was RMB 19.16 [16]. - The growth is supported by both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with traditional channels seeing an increase in revenue [16]. - The report indicates a strong certainty of growth in the next two years, maintaining the "Buy" rating [16]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Main revenue (RMB million): 124,100 (2022), 147,694 (2023), 171,480 (2024E), 197,574 (2025E), 223,812 (2026E) [4]. - Net profit (RMB million): 62,716 (2022), 74,734 (2023), 87,140 (2024E), 100,868 (2025E), 114,345 (2026E) [4]. - EPS: 49.93 (2022), 59.49 (2023), 69.37 (2024E), 80.30 (2025E), 91.02 (2026E) [4]. - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates: 16.9% (2022), 19.0% (2023), 16.1% (2024E), 15.2% (2025E), 13.3% (2026E) [4]. - Net profit growth rates: 19.6% (2022), 19.2% (2023), 16.6% (2024E), 15.8% (2025E), 13.4% (2026E) [4]. - Valuation Metrics: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 34.2 (2022), 28.7 (2023), 24.6 (2024E), 21.3 (2025E), 18.8 (2026E) [4]. - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: 10.9 (2022), 10.0 (2023), 8.3 (2024E), 7.0 (2025E), 5.9 (2026E) [4]. - EV/EBITDA: 24.8 (2022), 20.7 (2023), 16.9 (2024E), 14.4 (2025E), 12.3 (2026E) [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the Shanghai Composite Index shows a decline of 19% year-to-date, with a relative performance of -2.8% over the last month [2].