气候影响Q1客流承压，期待新项目落地贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Reduce" rating, indicating that the company's stock price is expected to decline by more than 10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The tourism market is rapidly recovering, and the company has capitalized on this opportunity, achieving record high performance in 2023 with revenue of RMB 630 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, and a net profit of RMB 147 million, a year-on-year increase of 623.9% [15]. - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was impacted by climate conditions, leading to a revenue of RMB 107 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.33%, and a net profit of RMB 11 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.82% [15][17]. - The company plans to enhance its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 0.536 per share, totaling RMB 100 million, with a dividend payout ratio of 67.93% [15]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 630 million in 2023, RMB 737 million in 2024E, RMB 844 million in 2025E, and RMB 924 million in 2026E, with growth rates of 70.9%, 16.9%, 14.5%, and 9.6% respectively [2]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to be RMB 324 million in 2023, RMB 379 million in 2024E, RMB 458 million in 2025E, and RMB 518 million in 2026E [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.79 in 2023, RMB 0.93 in 2024E, RMB 1.16 in 2025E, and RMB 1.33 in 2026E [2]. Business Segments Performance - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by business segments is as follows: scenic area RMB 325 million (+108.0%), hotel RMB 207 million (+45.2%), and travel agency RMB 9 million (+25.7%) [15]. - The gross profit margins for the scenic area, hotel, and travel agency segments showed significant recovery, with respective year-on-year increases of 25.1%, 11.4%, and 2.7 percentage points [15]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by new project developments, including the establishment of a rafting project and the completion of the second phase of the Nanshan Xiaozhai project [15][17]. - Despite the short-term challenges due to climate impacts, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by state-owned capital driving external expansion [15].