业绩短期承压，期待金葡菌疫苗进展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral," indicating that the stock is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the market index over the next six months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 500 million yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 million yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 370% to 3 million yuan [8][9]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but reported a net loss of 26 million yuan, a significant decline of 774.6% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is facing short-term performance pressure due to industry policy impacts, increased management and R&D expenses [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's quarterly revenue for 2023 was as follows: Q1: 70 million yuan (+25%), Q2: 170 million yuan (-7.2%), Q3: 120 million yuan (-13.7%), Q4: 140 million yuan (-18.6%) [8]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 93.6%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points, while the net margin was 2.3%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points [8]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 23.1%, reflecting increased investment in research and development [8]. Product Insights - The clinical III phase of the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be completed by 2025, with significant market potential as it targets a large number of surgical patients [9]. - The tetanus vaccine remains a significant revenue contributor, generating 460 million yuan in revenue, a 5.8% increase, with stable sales channels [9]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.19 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively [11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 604 million yuan, 714 million yuan, and 847 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.69%, 18.33%, and 18.54% respectively [12][20]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 194 in 2024 to 17 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [12][20]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.68% in 2024 to 14.78% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [12][20].