国内橡胶产业龙头，主业升级稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to Hainan Rubber [1][3][4]. Core Views - Hainan Rubber is a leading player in the domestic rubber industry, focusing on the sale of natural rubber products. The company has a significant market share, accounting for approximately 22% of global natural rubber trade volume in 2022, with a trading volume of 3.1 million tons [1][10]. - The company is actively expanding its product range into specialty rubber and deep processing sectors while maintaining a strong presence in various related fields such as rubber wood processing, finance, logistics, and e-commerce [1][10]. - The report highlights a favorable demand outlook for natural rubber, driven by macroeconomic recovery and strong sales in the electric vehicle sector, which is expected to support price increases in the future [1][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hainan Rubber is recognized as a domestic leader in the rubber industry, with a complete industrial chain from planting to processing and sales. The company owns approximately 4 million acres of rubber plantations, representing about 2% of the global total [1][10][12]. - The company has established a robust sales network covering major rubber-producing regions globally and maintains long-term partnerships with numerous well-known tire and rubber product manufacturers [1][10]. Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the supply of natural rubber has been declining since 2013, with traditional production areas entering a contraction phase. This, combined with recovering demand, suggests a potential upward trend in natural rubber prices [1][38]. - The global natural rubber market is heavily reliant on Southeast Asia, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam contributing over 60% of the total production [40]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 million, 1.4 million, and 1.7 million yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth expected in 2023 [2][22]. - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company's stock at 4.8 to 5.1 yuan, indicating a potential upside of about 5% from the current price [3][4].