Daqin Railway(SH:601006) Guolian Securities·2024-04-29 15:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.56 yuan, based on a 12x PE for 2024 [6][4]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 81.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.93 billion yuan, up 6.55% [2]. - The company announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to a minimum payout ratio of 55% of net profit for 2023-2025, with a cash dividend of 0.44 yuan per share in 2023 [3]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a decline in freight volume by 7.92% year-on-year, leading to a revenue drop of 16.65% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a freight volume of 730 million tons in 2023, a 7.3% increase, with coal transportation accounting for 620 million tons, up 10.7% [2]. - The revenue from freight business in 2023 was 61.24 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while passenger transport revenue surged by 119% to 8.92 billion yuan [2]. - The projected operating revenues for 2024-2026 are 81.84 billion yuan, 84.21 billion yuan, and 86.61 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.02%, 2.89%, and 2.85% [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 11.07 billion yuan, 11.37 billion yuan, and 11.62 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of -7.25%, 2.78%, and 2.22% respectively [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.66 yuan for the same period [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 11.8 for 2024, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9 [5]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is projected to be 5.5 for 2024, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5].